Timur Kayaalp

Between 2005 and 2026 the mean UK household inflation expectation was 2.97% against realised inflation of 2.89%. Behind that mean, 22% of households expected inflation above 5%. Anchoring is therefore a property of the average household and not of the distribution behind it. This dissertation measures the audience a message addresses, not only its hawkish or dovish direction. Four measures are built from Bank of England documents and 6,625 newspaper articles across five national titles, monthly from November 2005 to July 2026, and their surprise component is traced through lag-augmented local projections, identified with a policy shock built on the Committee’s own projections and a sign rotation that separates stance from information.

The audience measures move household expectations, while the direction measures do not. Household-framed press coverage is followed by expectations 0.35 percentage points lower a year ahead, and Bank text by 0.26. The response is concentrated in the tails: framing shrinks the share expecting 5% or more by 4.6 points. The effect is largest when coverage is light, falling from 0.68 to 0.12 percentage points as attention rises.

This paper assesses how effective the 2022–2024 sanctions have been in reducing natural-resource revenues, focusing on the EU crude-oil embargo and the G7 oil price cap alongside SWIFT exclusions and export controls. It traces the macroeconomic adjustment, from the exchange rate and the policy-rate path to fiscal stimulus and the rerouting of energy exports to new markets. Broad measures lose force once markets adjust, while targeted instruments such as the price cap are easier to enforce. The paper sets out ways to strengthen the price-cap mechanism through shipping and insurance regulation, the level of the cap and enforcement.